12. DrugFacts: Nationwide Trends | National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/drugfacts/nationwide-trends (Retrieved: 12.05.2019).
13. Drugs, U.N.O. on Crime The International Drug Control Conventions. UN, 2009 [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/commissions/CND.html (Retrieved: 10.05.2019).
14. Former Governors - National Governors Association [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.nga.org/former-governors/ (Retrieved: 23.04.2019).
15. History [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.dea.gov/history (Retrieved: 12.05.2019).
16. It's official: 2016 was marijuana legalization's biggest year ever - Vox [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/12/29/14054172/marijuana-legalization-2016 (Retrieved: 12.05.2019).
17. Kaiser Family Foundation - Health Policy Research, Analysis, Polling, Facts, Data and Journalism [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.kff.org/ (Retrieved: 23.04.2019).
18. League of Nations. The International Opium Convention, signed at The Hague, January 23, 1912, and subsequent relative papers [Electronic resource]. 1912. URL: https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/commissions/CND/conventions.html (Retrieved: 10.05.2019).
19. Legislative News, Studies and Analysis | National Conference of State Legislatures [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.ncsl.org/ (Retrieved: 07.03.2019).
20. Marijuana Policy Project - We Change Laws! [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.mpp.org/ (Retrieved: 23.04.2019).
21. Marijuana Policy Project. State Policy [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.mpp.org/states/ (Retrieved: 28.04.2019).
22. Most Commonly Used Addictive Drugs | National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/media-guide/most-commonly-used-addictive-drugs (Retrieved: 8.04.2019).
23. Movement Advancement Project | Our Work and Mission [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.lgbtmap.org/our-work-and-mission (Retrieved: 23.04.2019).
24. Office of National Drug Control Policy [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/ondcp/ (Retrieved: 12.05.2019).
25. Pew Research Center | Nonpartisan, non-advocacy public opinion polling and demographic research [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/ (Retrieved: 23.04.2019).
26. ProCon.org - Pros and Cons of Controversial Issues [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.procon.org/ (Retrieved: 23.04.2019).
27. State Policy [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.mpp.org/states/ (Retrieved: 28.04.2019).
28. The Association of Religion Data Archives | Quality Data on Religion [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.thearda.com/ (Retrieved: 23.04.2019).
29. The Global Commission on Drug Policy - The War on Drugs [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.globalcommissionondrugs.org/reports/the-war-on-drugs (Retrieved: 31.03.2019).
30. Treaties [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/treaties/index.html?ref=menuside (Retrieved: 22.11.2018).
31. United Nations Convention Against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances 1988 [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/commissions/CND/conventions.html (Retrieved: 10.05.2019).
32. United Nations. Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/treaties/single-convention.html (Retrieved: 9.05.2019).
33. US Department of Labor. Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.bls.gov/data/#maps (Retrieved: 23.04.2019).
34. USDA [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.usda.gov/ (Retrieved: 23.04.2019).
35. World Bank Group - International Development, Poverty, & Sustainability [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.worldbank.org/ (Retrieved: 04.05.2019).
36. World Drug Report 2018 [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.unodc.org/wdr2018/ (Retrieved: 25.11.2018).
СМИ и форумы:
1. 62% of Americans favor legalizing marijuana | Pew Research Center [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/10/08/americans-support-marijuana-legalization/ (Retrieved: 25.04.2019).
2. Marijuana legalization in 5 charts: A 2018 midterm report | PolitiFact [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2018/oct/26/marijuana-legalization-5-charts/ (Retrieved: 25.04.2019).
3. This is the surprising reason why Americans have dramatically shifted their views on legalizing pot - MarketWatch [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-surprising-reason-why-americans-have-dramatically-shifted-their-views-on-legalizing-pot-2019-02-05 (Retrieved: 25.04.2019).
4. Top 10 Most Common Drug and Alcohol Addictions in the U.S. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.addictioncenter.com/addiction/10-most-common-addictions/ (Retrieved: 28.04.2019).
5. Top 15 Most Used Drugs in America [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.northpointwashington.com/blog/top-15-used-drugs-america/ (Retrieved: 28.04.2019).
6. Will the results of an ordinal logit model be different from OLS regression, with discrete dependent variables? [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/post/Will_the_results_of_an_ordinal_logit_model_be_different_from_OLS_regression_with_discrete_dependent_variables (Retrieved: 04.05.2019).
Приложение
Приложение 1
Описательные статистики переменных, используемых в эмпирической части
|
N |
Минимум |
Максимум |
Среднее значение |
Стандартная отклонения |
||
|
1. time_3 |
51 |
24 |
576 |
429,41 |
185,272 |
|
|
2. time_4 |
51 |
1973,0 |
2019,0 |
2006,784 |
15,4393 |
|
|
3. lib |
51 |
1 |
2 |
1,20 |
,401 |
|
|
4. med |
51 |
1 |
2 |
1,65 |
,483 |
|
|
5. lib_act |
51 |
1 |
2 |
1,49 |
,505 |
|
|
6. dv |
51 |
1 |
5 |
2,53 |
1,391 |
|
|
7. values |
51 |
-2,50 |
35,00 |
13,0098 |
12,19815 |
|
|
8. white_med |
51 |
211050 |
14574800 |
3771463,73 |
3325669,649 |
|
|
9. black_med |
51 |
3900 |
2922900 |
725291,18 |
867324,187 |
|
|
10. hispan_med |
51 |
8750 |
14356500 |
1025520,59 |
2454311,602 |
|
|
11. asian_med |
51 |
4300 |
5026350 |
299689,22 |
732350,066 |
|
|
12. native_med |
51 |
1550 |
265950 |
39322,55 |
57480,642 |
|
|
13. 2012 LGBT Adult Population Estimate |
51 |
9040,0 |
1338164,0 |
167605,647 |
215141,9974 |
|
|
14. total_med |
51 |
561150 |
37366400 |
6009179,41 |
6840431,335 |
|
|
15. minor |
51 |
,07 |
,74 |
,2996 |
,15458 |
|
|
16. inc_per_cap |
51 |
37994 |
81882 |
52275,98 |
9227,246 |
|
|
17. consumption_med |
51 |
51,0 |
4633,0 |
654,665 |
781,4563 |
|
|
18. ur_pop |
51 |
30,900000000000000 |
100,000000000000000 |
59,042156862745095 |
16,969897974204265 |
|
|
19. rur_pop |
51 |
,000000000000000 |
69,100000000000000 |
40,957843137254905 |
16,969897974204260 |
|
|
20. GSP_per_cap |
51 |
35936,210781764600 |
198945,535936334260 |
57579,11309460395600 |
22861,704943661400000 |
|
|
21. prison_med |
51 |
8200 |
693300 |
126292,16 |
152661,394 |
|
|
22. crimes_ag_med |
51 |
0 |
70508 |
11426,10 |
12715,480 |
|
|
23. total_ex_pc |
51 |
,0000000000000 |
13808,5453128321400 |
6935,702306862988000 |
2307,504374726074300 |
|
|
24. Median Annual Household Income |
51 |
43469 |
82372 |
60235,33 |
10255,276 |
|
|
25. State Collections per Capita |
51 |
1605 |
11183 |
3097,10 |
1419,422 |
|
|
26. nature of govern |
51 |
-5 |
7 |
-,57 |
2,587 |
|
|
27. leg_comp_sum |
51 |
-22 |
22 |
-2,33 |
13,431 |
|
|
28. pov_total |
51 |
,0981689811202996 |
,2677459117245699 |
,176289675312707 |
,040170937243074 |
|
|
29. exp_JS_pc |
51 |
,4340527181569896 |
1,3829014341374450 |
,705688121032331 |
,201157861426962 |
|
|
30. pay_police |
50 |
,000000000 |
92908750,000000000 |
12170601,14000000000 |
16225486,722689968000 |
|
|
31. pay_judic |
50 |
2425366,0000000000 |
137134845,0000000000 |
19460519,080000002000 |
24146776,7503565440000 |
|
|
32. pay_health |
50 |
2318495,000000000 |
94921085,000000000 |
17298908,08000000600 |
19170198,620672565000 |
|
|
33. pay_correc |
50 |
3164932,0000000000 |
410902348,0000000000 |
39766660,220000006000 |
62966905,0976151700000 |
|
|
34. educ_pc |
51 |
,1283916161982641 |
,3485501119124596 |
,192992457340589 |
,039706248012989 |
|
|
N валидных (по списку) |
50 |
Приложение 2
Принадлежность штатов к субрегионам
|
Северо-Восток (Northeast) |
Средний Запад (Midwest) |
Запад (West) |
Юг (South) |
|
|
Connecticut |
Illinois |
Alaska |
Alabama |
|
|
Delaware |
Indiana |
Arizona |
Arkansas |
|
|
District of Columbia |
Iowa |
California |
Delaware |
|
|
Maine |
Kansas |
Colorado |
Florida |
|
|
Maryland |
Michigan |
Hawaii |
Georgia |
|
|
Massachusetts |
Minnesota |
Idaho |
Kentucky |
|
|
New Hampshire |
Missouri |
Montana |
Louisiana |
|
|
New Jersey |
Nebraska |
Nevada |
Maryland |
|
|
New York |
North Dakota |
New Mexico |
Mississippi |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
Ohio |
Oregon |
North Carolina |
|
|
Rhode Island |
South Dakota |
Utah |
Oklahoma |
|
|
Vermont |
Wisconsin |
Washington |
South Carolina |
|
|
Wyoming |
Tennessee |
|||
|
Texas |
||||
|
Virginia |
||||
|
West Virginia |
Приложение 3
Таблица выживания для рисунков 8-11
|
subregion_text |
values_bi |
Время |
Статус |
Накопленная доля выживших в определенное время |
N кумулятивных событий |
Число оставшихся наблюдений |
|||
|
Оценка |
Стандартная Ошибка |
||||||||
|
Midwest |
Conserva |
1 |
84,000 |
,50 |
,889 |
,105 |
1 |
8 |
|
|
2 |
444,000 |
1,00 |
,778 |
,139 |
2 |
7 |
|||
|
3 |
492,000 |
1,00 |
,667 |
,157 |
3 |
6 |
|||
|
4 |
516,000 |
1,00 |
,556 |
,166 |
4 |
5 |
|||
|
5 |
540,000 |
,50 |
,444 |
,166 |
5 |
4 |
|||
|
6 |
576,000 |
,00 |
. |
. |
5 |
3 |
|||
|
7 |
576,000 |
,00 |
. |
. |
5 |
2 |
|||
|
8 |
576,000 |
,00 |
. |
. |
5 |
1 |
|||
|
9 |
576,000 |
,00 |
. |
. |
5 |
0 |
|||
|
Liberal |
1 |
60,000 |
1,00 |
,667 |
,272 |
1 |
2 |
||
|
2 |
504,000 |
1,00 |
,333 |
,272 |
2 |
1 |
|||
|
3 |
576,000 |
,00 |
. |
. |
2 |
0 |
|||
|
Northeas |
Liberal |
1 |
60,000 |
2,00 |
,900 |
,095 |
1 |
9 |
|
|
2 |
72,000 |
1,00 |
,800 |
,126 |
2 |
8 |
|||
|
3 |
396,000 |
2,00 |
,700 |
,145 |
3 |
7 |
|||
|
4 |
420,000 |
1,00 |
,600 |
,155 |
4 |
6 |
|||
|
5 |
468,000 |
,50 |
,500 |
,158 |
5 |
5 |
|||
|
6 |
480,000 |
1,00 |
,400 |
,155 |
6 |
4 |
|||
|
7 |
492,000 |
2,00 |
,300 |
,145 |
7 |
3 |
|||
|
8 |
504,000 |
1,00 |
,200 |
,126 |
8 |
2 |
|||
|
9 |
516,000 |
2,00 |
,100 |
,095 |
9 |
1 |
|||
|
10 |
540,000 |
,50 |
,000 |
,000 |
10 |
0 |
|||
|
South |
Conserva |
1 |
72,000 |
,50 |
. |
. |
1 |
13 |
|
|
2 |
72,000 |
,50 |
,857 |
,094 |
2 |
12 |
|||
|
3 |
540,000 |
,50 |
. |
. |
3 |
11 |
|||
|
4 |
540,000 |
,50 |
. |
. |
4 |
10 |
|||
|
5 |
540,000 |
,50 |
,643 |
,128 |
5 |
9 |
|||
|
6 |
552,000 |
,50 |
,571 |
,132 |
6 |
8 |
|||
|
7 |
564,000 |
,50 |
,500 |
,134 |
7 |
7 |
|||
|
8 |
576,000 |
,00 |
. |
. |
7 |
6 |
|||
|
9 |
576,000 |
,00 |
. |
. |
7 |
5 |
|||
|
10 |
576,000 |
,00 |
. |
. |
7 |
4 |
|||
|
11 |
576,000 |
,00 |
. |
. |
7 |
3 |
|||
|
12 |
576,000 |
,00 |
. |
. |
7 |
2 |
|||
|
13 |
576,000 |
,00 |
. |
. |
7 |
1 |
|||
|
14 |
576,000 |
,00 |
. |
. |
7 |
0 |
|||
|
Liberal |
1 |
480,000 |
1,00 |
,500 |
,354 |
1 |
1 |
||
|
2 |
516,000 |
1,00 |
,000 |
,000 |
2 |
0 |
|||
|
West |
Conserva |
1 |
324,000 |
2,00 |
,833 |
,152 |
1 |
5 |
|
|
2 |
396,000 |
,50 |
,667 |
,192 |
2 |
4 |
|||
|
3 |
468,000 |
,50 |
,500 |
,204 |
3 |
3 |
|||
|
4 |
564,000 |
,50 |
,333 |
,192 |
4 |
2 |
|||
|
5 |
576,000 |
,00 |
. |
. |
4 |
1 |
|||
|
6 |
576,000 |
,00 |
. |
. |
4 |
0 |
|||
|
Liberal |
1 |
24,000 |
1,50 |
,857 |
,132 |
1 |
6 |
||
|
2 |
48,000 |
2,00 |
,714 |
,171 |
2 |
5 |
|||
|
3 |
60,000 |
2,00 |
,571 |
,187 |
3 |
4 |
|||
|
4 |
348,000 |
2,00 |
. |
. |
4 |
3 |
|||
|
5 |
348,000 |
,50 |
,286 |
,171 |
5 |
2 |
|||
|
6 |
360,000 |
2,00 |
,143 |
,132 |
6 |
1 |
|||
|
7 |
432,000 |
1,00 |
,000 |
,000 |
7 |
0 |
Приложение 4
Технические тесты для логистических «политических» моделей 11-13 (Таблица 15)
|
Сводный отчет по наблюдениям |
||||
|
N |
Маргинальный процент |
|||
|
dv |
Prohib |
14 |
27,5% |
|
|
2 |
15 |
29,4% |
||
|
3 |
12 |
23,5% |
||
|
4 |
1 |
2,0% |
||
|
Full leg |
9 |
17,6% |
||
|
lib_act_bi |
not occured |
26 |
51,0% |
|
|
occured |
25 |
49,0% |
||
|
subregion_text |
Midwest |
12 |
23,5% |
|
|
Northeast |
10 |
19,6% |
||
|
South |
16 |
31,4% |
||
|
West |
13 |
25,5% |
||
|
Допустимо |
51 |
100,0% |
||
|
Пропущенные |
1048373 |
|||
|
Всего |
1048424 |
|
Информация подгонки модели |
|||||
|
Модель |
-2 Log-правдоподобие |
Хи-квадрат |
ст.св. |
Знач. |
|
|
Только свободный член |
146,723 |
||||
|
Окончательная |
61,876 |
84,847 |
10 |
,000 |
|
|
Функция связи: Логит. |
|
Критерий согласия |
||||
|
Хи-квадрат |
ст.св. |
Знач. |
||
|
Пирсона |
66,616 |
190 |
1,000 |
|
|
Отклонение |
61,876 |
190 |
1,000 |
|
|
Функция связи: Логит. |
|
Псевдо R-квадрат |
||
|
Кокса и Снелла |
,811 |
|
|
Нэйджелкерк |
,859 |
|
|
McFadden |
,578 |
|
|
Функция связи: Логит. |
Приложение 5
Технические тесты для логистических «социальных» моделей 14-16 (Таблица 16)
|
Сводный отчет по наблюдениям |
||||
|
N |
Маргинальный процент |
|||
|
dv |
Prohib |
14 |
27,5% |
|
|
2 |
15 |
29,4% |
||
|
3 |
12 |
23,5% |
||
|
4 |
1 |
2,0% |
||
|
Full leg |
9 |
17,6% |
||
|
subregion_text |
Midwest |
12 |
23,5% |
|
|
Northeast |
10 |
19,6% |
||
|
South |
16 |
31,4% |
||
|
West |
13 |
25,5% |
||
|
Допустимо |
51 |
100,0% |
||
|
Пропущенные |
1048373 |
|||
|
Всего |
1048424 |
|
Информация подгонки модели |
|||||
|
Модель |
-2 Log-правдоподобие |
Хи-квадрат |
ст.св. |
Знач. |
|
|
Только свободный член |
146,723 |
||||
|
Окончательная |
100,297 |
46,426 |
10 |
,000 |
|
|
Функция связи: Логит. |
|
Критерий согласия |
||||
|
Хи-квадрат |
ст.св. |
Знач. |
||
|
Пирсона |
132,880 |
190 |
,999 |
|
|
Отклонение |
100,297 |
190 |
1,000 |
|
|
Функция связи: Логит. |
|
Псевдо R-квадрат |
||
|
Кокса и Снелла |
,598 |
|
|
Нэйджелкерк |
,633 |
|
|
McFadden |
,316 |
|
|
Функция связи: Логит. |