|--------------------------------------+---------------------------|
| DeltaFDI DeltaGDP | 28.007 5 0.000 |
| DeltaFDIALL | 28.007 5 0.000 |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+
Казуальность ВВП и ПИИ по Азербайджану
Азербайджан
Vector autoregression
Sample: 2004 - 2017 Number of obs = 14
Log likelihood = 3.247186 AIC = 2.678973
FPE = .1497017 HQIC = 2.586013
Det(Sigma_ml) = .0021557 SBIC = 3.683206
Equation Parms RMSE R-sq chi2 P>chi2
----------------------------------------------------------------
DeltaGDP 11 .101044 0.7840 50.82605 0.0000
DeltaFDI 11 2.16223 0.9655 391.3406 0.0000
----------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
DeltaGDP |
DeltaGDP |
L1. | 1.292082 .2637364 4.90 0.000 .7751682 1.808996
L2. | -.135085 .5842143 -0.23 0.817 -1.280124 1.009954
L3. | .1126222 .5383689 0.21 0.834 -.9425613 1.167806
L4. | .0436478 .5235531 0.08 0.934 -.9824975 1.069793
L5. | -.3884701 .4475116 -0.87 0.385 -1.265577 .4886366
|
DeltaFDI |
L1. | .0065737 .0063173 1.04 0.298 -.005808 .0189554
L2. | .0088769 .0062357 1.42 0.155 -.0033449 .0210986
L3. | .0046919 .0077653 0.60 0.546 -.0105278 .0199116
L4. | .0082487 .0037886 2.18 0.029 .0008231 .0156742
L5. | .0013413 .004458 0.30 0.764 -.0073963 .0100789
|
_cons | .0058982 .0277582 0.21 0.832 -.0485068 .0603031
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
DeltaFDI |
DeltaGDP |
L1. | -80.16922 5.643683 -14.21 0.000 -91.23064 -69.10781
L2. | 67.0521 12.50158 5.36 0.000 42.54946 91.55473
L3. | -12.82302 11.52053 -1.11 0.266 -35.40285 9.756802
L4. | -4.955513 11.20349 -0.44 0.658 -26.91395 17.00293
L5. | 33.06648 9.576282 3.45 0.001 14.29731 51.83565
|
DeltaFDI |
L1. | -.2647008 .1351834 -1.96 0.050 -.5296553 .0002537
L2. | -.7620586 .1334372 -5.71 0.000 -1.023591 -.5005265
L3. | -.0404272 .1661691 -0.24 0.808 -.3661127 .2852584
L4. | -.5860185 .0810722 -7.23 0.000 -.7449171 -.4271199
L5. | .3818606 .0953976 4.00 0.000 .1948848 .5688364
|
_cons | -1.146793 .5939956 -1.93 0.054 -2.311002 .0174173
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. vargranger
Granger causality Wald tests
+------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Equation Excluded | chi2 df Prob > chi2 |
|--------------------------------------+---------------------------|
| DeltaGDP DeltaFDI | 6.3712 5 0.272 |
| DeltaGDP ALL | 6.3712 5 0.272 |
|--------------------------------------+---------------------------|
| DeltaFDI DeltaGDP | 233.92 5 0.000 |
| DeltaFDIALL | 233.92 5 0.000 |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+
Казуальность ВВП и ПИИ по Кыргызстану
Кыргызстан
Vector autoregression
Sample: 2004 - 2017 Number of obs = 14
Log likelihood = 31.00265 AIC = -1.286093
FPE = .0028394 HQIC = -1.379053
Det(Sigma_ml) = .0000409 SBIC = -.2818597
Equation Parms RMSE R-sq chi2 P>chi2
----------------------------------------------------------------
DeltaGDP 11 .039992 0.6460 25.54458 0.0044
DeltaFDI 11 2.47478 0.9306 187.7147 0.0000
----------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
DeltaGDP |
DeltaGDP |
L1. | -.4932905 .249708 -1.98 0.048 -.9827093 -.0038718
L2. | -.3524052 .2972199 -1.19 0.236 -.9349455 .2301352
L3. | -.7830198 .2333184 -3.36 0.001 -1.240315 -.3257243
L4. | -.1929603 .2965631 -0.65 0.515 -.7742132 .3882927
L5. | -.1680196 .2559943 -0.66 0.512 -.6697593 .33372
|
DeltaFDI |
L1. | .0013327 .0019175 0.70 0.487 -.0024254 .0050909
L2. | -.0161766 .0083706 -1.93 0.053 -.0325828 .0002295
L3. | -.0024455 .0093186 -0.26 0.793 -.0207097 .0158187
L4. | .0014752 .0074693 0.20 0.843 -.0131643 .0161146
L5. | .0052365 .0035445 1.48 0.140 -.0017105 .0121836
|
_cons | .1325421 .0445151 2.98 0.003 .0452942 .21979
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
DeltaFDI |
DeltaGDP |
L1. | -24.69232 15.45252 -1.60 0.110 -54.9787 5.594067
L2. | 88.82503 18.39267 4.83 0.000 52.77606 124.874
L3. | -1.392337 14.43829 -0.10 0.923 -29.69086 26.90619
L4. | -37.12895 18.35202 -2.02 0.043 -73.09825 -1.159649
L5. | 101.4835 15.84153 6.41 0.000 70.43469 132.5324
|
DeltaFDI |
L1. | -.5761732 .118657 -4.86 0.000 -.8087366 -.3436098
L2. | -3.994415 .5179954 -7.71 0.000 -5.009668 -2.979163
L3. | -1.448141 .5766595 -2.51 0.012 -2.578373 -.3179097
L4. | 3.601576 .4622153 7.79 0.000 2.695651 4.507502
L5. | 1.133816 .2193404 5.17 0.000 .7039171 1.563716
|
_cons | -6.499658 2.754696 -2.36 0.018 -11.89876 -1.100553
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. vargranger
Granger causality Wald tests
+------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Equation Excluded | chi2 df Prob > chi2 |
|--------------------------------------+---------------------------|
| DeltaGDP DeltaFDI | 9.3401 5 0.096 |
| DeltaGDP ALL | 9.3401 5 0.096 |
|--------------------------------------+---------------------------|
| DeltaFDI DeltaGDP | 81.775 5 0.000 |
| DeltaFDIALL | 81.775 5 0.000 |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+
Казуальность ВВП и ПИИ по Узбекистану
Узбекистан
Vector autoregression
Sample: 2004 - 2017 Number of obs = 14
Log likelihood = 53.56738 AIC = -4.509626
FPE = .000113 HQIC = -4.602586
Det(Sigma_ml) = 1.63e-06 SBIC = -3.505393
Equation Parms RMSE R-sq chi2 P>chi2
----------------------------------------------------------------
DeltaGDP 11 .006641 0.9345 199.8677 0.0000
DeltaFDI 11 1.21641 0.6351 24.36845 0.0067
----------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
DeltaGDP |
DeltaGDP |
L1. | .3339015 .1628911 2.05 0.040 .0146409 .6531622
L2. | -.0091172 .1236474 -0.07 0.941 -.2514616 .2332272
L3. | .2311647 .1265007 1.83 0.068 -.0167721 .4791015
L4. | -.2959157 .1665913 -1.78 0.076 -.6224287 .0305973
L5. | -.3861922 .1524174 -2.53 0.011 -.6849248 -.0874596
|
DeltaFDI |
L1. | -.0061125 .0020205 -3.03 0.002 -.0100727 -.0021523
L2. | -.0009053 .0018289 -0.49 0.621 -.0044899 .0026793
L3. | .0033011 .0017573 1.88 0.060 -.0001432 .0067453
L4. | .0146554 .002828 5.18 0.000 .0091125 .0201982
L5. | .013551 .0033188 4.08 0.000 .0070463 .0200557
|
_cons | .0720498 .0143064 5.04 0.000 .0440098 .1000897
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
DeltaFDI |
DeltaGDP |
L1. | .319379 29.83486 0.01 0.991 -58.15588 58.79464
L2. | -12.86327 22.64705 -0.57 0.570 -57.25067 31.52413
L3. | 52.28728 23.16966 2.26 0.024 6.875574 97.69899
L4. | -39.56169 30.5126 -1.30 0.195 -99.36527 20.2419
L5. | -1.115962 27.91652 -0.04 0.968 -55.83133 53.59941
|
DeltaFDI |
L1. | -.3700045 .3700793 -1.00 0.317 -1.095347 .3553377
L2. | .4456192 .3349816 1.33 0.183 -.2109327 1.102171
L3. | -.0309032 .3218661 -0.10 0.924 -.6617492 .5999428
L4. | .4568234 .5179804 0.88 0.378 -.5583995 1.472046
L5. | -.9718905 .6078614 -1.60 0.110 -2.163277 .2194959
|
_cons | .0716486 2.620329 0.03 0.978 -5.064102 5.207399
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. vargranger
Granger causality Wald tests
+------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Equation Excluded | chi2 df Prob > chi2 |
|--------------------------------------+---------------------------|
| DeltaGDP DeltaFDI | 51.451 5 0.000 |
| DeltaGDP ALL | 51.451 5 0.000 |
|--------------------------------------+---------------------------|
| DeltaFDI DeltaGDP | 6.7694 5 0.238 |
| DeltaFDIALL | 6.7694 5 0.238 |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+
Дипломная работа на тему «Совершенствование регулирования прямых иностранных инвестиций на основе территориальных преимуществ в Российской Федерации» посвящена исследованию совершенствования государственного регулирования прямых иностранных инвестиций на основе анализа долгосрочных территориальных детерминант в странах СНГ и краткосрочных территориальных детерминант в России. Анализ этих детерминант основан на эмпирических исследованиях зарубежных стран. Эконометрическая модель определения детерминант используется на панельных вторичных данных по 9 показателям с 5 различных ресурсов с 1999 по 2018 гг. Результаты исследования показали значимость 3 переменных долгосрочных детерминант в странах СНГ и значимость 7 из 8 переменных краткосрочных детерминант, что позволило определить территориальные преимущества и недостатки Российской Федерации по сравнению со странами СНГ и предложить меры по совершенствованию государственного регулирования прямых иностранных инвестиций.
Ключевые слова: прямые иностранные инвестиции, детерминанты, государственное регулирование
This research considers the evolution of FDI theories, revealing the advantages and disadvantages of each theory, which have been described in the scientific literature. The research aims to determine the most significant determinants of FDI inflow in CIS countries in order to develop government regulation of FDI in Russia based on location-specific advantages.The effect of determinants of FDI on FDI inflow is examined. The research investigates the location-specific advantages of FDI inflow to the host country through confirming or refuting considered theories by empirical findings of existing quantitative studies. The quantitative part of this research is presented by econometric modeling, which is based on the considered FDI theories and is used on panel data of CIS countries from 1999 until 2018. The panel data set contains a numerical value of 9 variables from 5 different sources. It was found out, that the long-run determinants of FDI in CIS countries are Dutch Disease, Exchange rate and Openness of trade. Eight out of nine determinants are statistically significant in short-run in Russia. Thus, comparative location-specific advantages of the Russian Federation is empirically shown and several steps are proposed to regulate FDI inflow better.
Keywords: FDI, determinants, government regulation,